Brexit Effect: Non-EU Workers Outnumber EU Counterparts in Key UK Sectors
In a significant post-Brexit shift, several sectors in the UK, which were previously reliant on European citizens, now have more non-EU workers than EU workers, highlighting the impact of international events on immigration patterns.
According to an analysis by The Guardian, in 2022, the number of non-EU workers surpassed their EU counterparts for the first time, reaching an average of 2.7 million compared to 2.5 million last year.
Industries such as accommodation and food services, administration, and wholesale, retail, and vehicle repair, which previously depended on EU workers, have experienced a transition towards employing non-EU and British employees.
Although sectors like agriculture, forestry, and fishing still rely on EU workers, they have also witnessed changes. The proportion of EU citizens employed in these sectors declined significantly from 23% before the pandemic to about one in seven people last summer. In contrast, the percentage of non-EU workers has risen to 6% in 2022, compared to 2% in 2019 and 1% before the Brexit referendum.
Non-EU workers have overtaken EU citizens in some industries
According to Madeleine Sumption, the director of Oxford University’s migration observatory, Brexit has played a role in the shift observed in the labor market. Measures such as the work visa system for care workers and the relaxation of post-study work rules for international students have contributed to this change. However, Sumption also emphasized that other factors beyond Brexit have influenced the shift.
Sumption stated that while Brexit policies restricted migration into low-wage industries, migration into these sectors still occurred due to other factors unrelated to Brexit, such as the Hong Kong and Ukraine schemes, as well as increased demand from the National Health Service (NHS).
Before 2020, EU citizens constituted two-thirds of foreign workers in the hospitality and administrative services sectors, as well as half of those in wholesale, vehicle retail and repair, and the mining sector. However, according to HMRC data, EU citizens now make up less than half of the non-UK-born workforce in these industries.
In the real estate industry and the professional and scientific sector, the composition of the international workforce was roughly equal before 2020. However, since the beginning of 2021, there has been a significant increase in the proportion of non-EU workers, who now make up 55% of the total workforce in these sectors.
Non-EU workers have also risen in areas where the international workforce still comes primarily from the EU
While the manufacturing and arts and entertainment sectors still have a higher number of EU citizens employed compared to non-EU nationals, there has been a noticeable rise in the number of non-EU workers as the European workforce declined.
Between 2019 and 2022, the manufacturing industry experienced a 23% growth in the employment of non-EU citizens, while EU staff numbers simultaneously decreased by 5%. Similarly, in the arts and entertainment sector, there was a 13% increase in non-EU workers, while EU worker numbers declined by 12%.
Furthermore, in the healthcare sector, the proportion of non-EU foreign workers has seen a significant increase. In 2019, they accounted for 10% of the total workforce, but by December 2022, their representation had risen to 14%.
Non-EU workers have increased in sectors where they are the main international workforce
According to the analysis, the number of non-EU workers has been steadily increasing since 2014, the first year for which data is available. However, this growth accelerated from the beginning of 2021, reaching nearly 3 million by December 2022, marking a significant 40% increase over two years. In contrast, the number of EU workers remained relatively stable during the same period, with only a 1% increase between December 2020 and December 2022. This coincided with the end of freedom of movement at the conclusion of 2020.
Before Brexit, forecasts indicated that industries heavily reliant on EU workers would face challenges in recruiting migrant workers due to job roles that were not considered skilled enough to meet immigration system requirements, as mentioned by Sumption. However, the actual outcome has been quite different. Sumption highlights that all major industries have experienced an increase in the recruitment of non-EU workers, often witnessing significant rises. This has primarily been attributed to more non-EU citizens arriving in the UK through non-work routes that permit them to work in any job. Additionally, the recruitment of family members of visa holders or international students, who are allowed to work part-time during their studies, may have contributed to this trend.
